Amidst conflicting news reports, the latest economic forecasts from HM Treasury, released in the past few days, provide a clearer outlook for both the economy and the housing market in 2025.
Economic growth is expected to be modestly stronger over 2025 compared with 2024, although a worrying pause in economic growth in Q4 and a few risks on the downside could alter that outlook.
Inflation is forecast to sit just above target rates, but certainly leagues better than the high rates seen in 2023 and early 2024, and likely not high enough to stop the Bank of England from cutting interest rates.
The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates from 4.75% to 3.75% by the end of 2025. While much of this is already priced into fixed mortgages, there could be some further downward shifts in these rates.
For the housing market this economic backdrop should amount to a solid year for transaction activity, with prices likely to grow by a similar amount to 2024. Source: Dataloft by PriceHubble, HM Treasury Consensus Jan 2025
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